Geopolitics

Prediction Markets vs Intelligence Estimates: What Traders Got Right About the Iran Crisis

How prediction markets tracked the Iran crisis vs intelligence community estimates — where traders outperformed experts, and where they fell short.

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Recent Articles
  1. Prediction Markets vs Intelligence Estimates: What Traders Got Right About the Iran Crisis
  2. The Fractured Ceasefire: Iran's Leadership Vacuum, the Strait of Hormuz Blockade, and the Architecture of a Post-War Middle East
  3. Energy Transition in the Middle East: Beyond Oil Economics
  4. Intelligence Brief: Cyber Warfare Capabilities Across the Region
  5. Strategic Assessment: The Shifting Power Balance in the Persian Gulf